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貿易戦争と貿易摩擦
A trade war refers to an economic conflict between countries characterized by the imposition of tariffs or other trade barriers in response to disputes over trade policies. It typically starts when one country imposes tariffs or restrictions on imports from another country, and the affected country retaliates with similar measures. Trade wars can escalate, leading to reduced trade, higher costs for consumers, and economic uncertainty.
Trade friction, on the other hand, refers to disagreements or tensions between countries over trade-related issues, such as tariffs, subsidies, intellectual property rights, or market access. Unlike a trade war, trade friction does not necessarily involve aggressive retaliatory actions but rather ongoing disputes that may be resolved through negotiations.
貿易戦争と貿易摩擦の違い
The key difference between trade war and trade friction lies in the intensity and the level of economic confrontation between countries.
Trade Friction
- Definition: Trade friction refers to disagreements or tensions between countries regarding trade policies, market access, tariffs, subsidies, or regulatory practices.
- Nature: It is more about disputes and negotiations rather than outright economic conflict.
- Resolution: Often resolved through diplomatic discussions, trade agreements, or WTO (World Trade Organization) mediation.
- Examples:
- Disputes over agricultural subsidies between the U.S. and the EU.
- Concerns over China’s intellectual property practices before the U.S. imposed tariffs.
Trade War
- Definition: A trade war occurs when countries impose retaliatory tariffs or trade restrictions on each other in an escalating manner.
- Nature: It is an active economic confrontation, where both sides take punitive actions.
- Resolution: Difficult to resolve quickly, as each side may continue imposing more tariffs or restrictions, leading to broader economic consequences.
- Examples:
- The U.S.-China Trade War (2018–2020), where both countries imposed tariffs on billions of dollars worth of each other’s goods.
- The Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act (1930), which led to global retaliatory tariffs and worsened the Great Depression.
How Are They Related?
- Trade friction can escalate into a trade war if diplomatic solutions fail.
- Trade war is a more extreme form of trade friction, where countries retaliate with tariffs and trade barriers.
- Not all trade friction leads to a trade war, but all trade wars originate from trade friction.
アメリカ対世界の国々との間貿易戦争の行く末、ドルと円の価値の行方
Current Trade Tensions
As of February 2025, the United States announced a 25% tariff on all imports from Canada and Mexico. In retaliation, Canada immediately imposed equivalent tariffs, and Mexico is considering similar measures. citeturn0news14
Potential Impact on USD and JPY
Trade tensions can influence currency values through various channels:
- Investor Sentiment: Escalating trade disputes often lead to market uncertainty, prompting investors to seek safe-haven currencies like the JPY. This increased demand can strengthen the yen.
- Economic Growth: Tariffs can slow economic growth by increasing costs for businesses and consumers. If the U.S. economy slows relative to others, the USD might weaken.
- Interest Rate Policies: Central banks may adjust interest rates in response to economic slowdowns. If the Federal Reserve cuts rates to support the economy, the USD could depreciate.
USD/JPY Exchange Rate Forecasts
Analysts have varying projections for the USD/JPY exchange rate:
- LongForecast anticipates the USD/JPY rate to reach 160 by March 2025, followed by fluctuations between 158 and 163 throughout the year. citeturn0search0
- LiteFinance suggests a potential decline to around 140 in 2025, indicating a strengthening yen against the dollar. citeturn0search1
Conclusion
The trajectory of the USD and JPY will depend on the evolution of trade tensions and their economic repercussions. If disputes escalate, the yen may strengthen due to its safe-haven status, while the dollar could face downward pressure from reduced economic growth and potential interest rate cuts. Conversely, if tensions ease, the dollar might stabilize or appreciate. Given the mixed forecasts, it’s advisable to monitor ongoing developments closely.